The industry judgment, the global solar energy market in 2012 is still at the dormant period. The spot price makes most of the major manufacturers low sit through with his teeth, and developed economies policy to not give market to the foreseeable great, boosted the effect of the policy of emerging economies must still be time appeared. Thus, the market is still in the early stages of renewed dormant.
But the price, market, technology in continued development, glue stick this will make manufacturers crossed.
Set bond technology (TrendForce) its research department EnergyTrend think that 2012 will be the global solar photovoltaic industry face tough challenges QuWuCunJing year.
According to the current development, from the policy to see, at present the market policies to reduce the total amount control and mainly in subsidy amount to give priority to. Emerging markets in the policy "is released, but still stay time brewing fermentation; On the other hand, at present the industrial chain of prices to go to, glue gun and from the middle to the module of the wafer field spot trading price is still low, compared with the actual production costs, most of the major manufacturers are in the condition of the sit through with his teeth.
According to the EnergyTrend estimate, in 2011 the global solar photovoltaic installation quantity will reach market 19 GW, but industry overall inventory (including the finished product and semi-finished products) will be as high as 10 GW or so, so will the industrial chain of supply and demand situation is still in great demand.
For the 2012 development situation, and EnergyTrend estimated the global market demand is about maintaining in 19 GW or so, demand doesn't seem growth, the main reason is that the European market demand is the influence of the policy adjustment, Italy, Germany, England and other countries to the present situation of demand decline; On the other hand, the Asian market demand is the policy to encourage and appear growth, but like China, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and the demand of 2012 is still in the small increase status, EnergyTrend estimated to market in 2013 will be strong growth.
In addition, North America and India market are of attention, but the two big market still has problems to solve.
From the American market perspective, CashGrant act will expire in the end of 2011, 2012 will be TaxCredit bill instead. EnergyTrend think TaxCredit bill to push the development of market rebound is limited, makes 2012 American market in chaos unclear status. (CashGrant bill and TaxCredit bill to the United States for solar energy industry subsidies bill editor's note)
And in India market, although the national solar energy plan implementation of let India market have enormous potential demand, but the central and local government performance and financial status, plus local self-making ratio, the implementation of the India market influence will become the future development of uncertain factors.
Finally, in price, the product at present prices at the middle mentioned in the fall, make relevant firms business faced with great pressure.
And from a "solar energy cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) review" analysis to see, the system cost mainly module cost, BOS (BalanceofSystem) cost, and system effectiveness three large blocks of decision. "Solar energy cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) review" by Michigan research university of science and technology, a scholar, of queen's university in Ontario JinShiDu two scholars collaboration together.
In module cost EnergyTrend think with the polysilicon production continue to pay, the future costs will return to the module health, but short-term intrinsic price won't appear fall further.
But in BOS, like solar inverter (SolarInverter), EPC, etc are still maintain a stable price, compared with module cost has reaction at present market situation, the future price will be adjustment of BOS key.