Recently, we participated in Concord Energy Agency and chairman of its executives to participate in exchange activities. Investors from around the world during the proposed lot about the development of photovoltaic industry and the prospects of the company's problem products. Through this exchange on the domestic PV market, we have further clear understanding of the way of the future development of China's PV is full of confidence.
We judged that: 1) the current products of electronic grade silicon (11N) costs can be 20 $ / KG the following, and 6N solar grade silicon cost can be controlled at 18 $ / KG below the price the next 2 years with the production of crystalline silicon rapid decline in the release of up to 50% or more of space (mainly consider the long association of single-price decline) huge cost of the final transfer to the component-side can be reduced about 15% -20%; 2) expansion of capacity throughout the solar industry relies heavily on its cost decline, glue gun particularly decline in the cost of crystalline silicon; rather than hope or subsidies from government subsidies; 3) solar grade silicon production and slicing enterprises have realized the profits to be transferring to the cells, components of the industry and links, so that increased demand components and eventually to bring crystalline silicon and the increase in demand for the industry; 4) the implementation of end-products industry decreased level of anti-echelon production capacity continues to expand and dominate the market, while significantly upgrading its equipment and technology , glue stick for new equipment can reduce the cost of production equipment demand; 5) the domestic market is expected to be the big cake 10GW launched in 12-13, will be in the low-cost model to achieve rapid growth.
1. The solar industry as a whole situation?
Business part of the stock component of the first echelon stock companies limited.
The first tier companies (GW level and above business, and has a front-end chain) down the supply chain vendor shipments relatively stable, and the upper reaches of crystalline silicon, sliced ??companies have adopted techniques to improve and expand the scale to minimize costs and realize , to ensure their normal profit, consider cut their prices in the hope that the downstream companies guarantee a certain margin as far as reducing costs, thereby expanding the market, in turn, long-term development of the security industry. It is understood that some third tier companies, the existence of a certain stock, 3,4-quarter as the market demand increases, such stock will gradually digested, the final full-year growth of the industry is assured.
The first tier business orders still adequate.
It is understood that a class of tier enterprises, order status now is still better. Such as Concord currently has more than 20 years of long, 8-12 single, total shipments are beyond the 55GW, its customers and maintain good customer relations, but also actively developing new customers, continue to take this opportunity to expand market share, and customer combination, and grow together.
Take the initiative to lower prices of raw materials to silicon to obtain adequate profit margins downstream customers.
The core of a class of tier enterprises, especially manufacturers of crystalline silicon raw material, has take the initiative to recognize initiative to cut prices, the gross profit margin to ensure the level of downstream customers, making the downstream firms to obtain better prices, while it has the highest gross margins in the industry, in turn, expanded its market share and capacity to achieve the strong stronger pattern.
2. The entire PV industry formats situation.
PV industry is currently mainly rely on government subsidies, the core business by expanding production capacity, technological progress, hoping to promote the lower cost of the photovoltaic industry, so as soon as possible the complete PV industry market. A tier enterprises, efforts to scale through the expansion of technological progress and promote lower prices, thereby promoting development. The official reason, we believe that these companies lower prices of its gross margin will be manageable, and the entire PV industry trend is the strong stronger, the future will face the integration of the entire industry.