- Trend Analysis of Economic Operation of Machinery Industry.
Vice President of China Machinery Industry Federation Cai Wei-Tze.
2008 the first 10 months, mechanical industrial economy totaled 7.48 trillion yuan of industrial output value, an increase of 26.52%; the 109 kinds of main products,glue stick production increased to 87 species, 80% had double-digit growth 56 species, 51%, a decrease of 22 species, 20%, in October 2008 when the monthly year on year reduction of 50 species, 46%, the proportion of significantly rare in recent years,glue gun indicating that sustained high growth situation has been reversed. 1 September 2008, total export 184.1 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32.85%; 1 August total profit of 340 billion yuan, an increase of 27.51%; the first half of the laid a good foundation, it is expected that annual sales could be to achieve 20% growth.
From the statistical data, in the second half speed machine industrial economy down month by month.
An increase in industrial output in 2008 fell to 1 to 28.83% in July, down more than 1 to 0.78 percentage points in June; 1 and further reduced to 28.09% in August, 1 September fell to 27.52%, also down 0.57 percentage points . As of October 2008, industrial output growth rate has been reduced to 26.52% year on year.
It is clear that began in June 2008, year on year growth rate of output fell faster the month: June 2008 29.29%, 24.71% in July, August 23.01%, 23.92% in September, October and 18.19%.
Worrying downward trend continues.
Despite the frequent introduction of the national policy of expanding domestic demand, but take some time to bear fruit.
The fourth quarter of 2008 is expected to speed machinery industry will continue down the economy, but because of the high growth in the first half and lay a foundation, so the whole machinery industry sales are still expected to achieve 25% growth in profits is expected to achieve 20% growth in exports is expected to grow 30%, the trade surplus is expected to reach 400 billion U.S. dollars.
The economy is expected to run the machinery industry in 2009 will continue the downward trend in the second half of 2008, the year before the low after the high is expected to will show the development trend. Estimated growth rate in 2009 than in 2008, down 10 percentage points. Specifically, the year 2009 is expected to grow about 15% of sales, profit is expected to grow about 10%, export is expected to grow about 15%.
In the machinery industry during the downturn, some of the problems currently found in the following:
First, the power generation equipment industry, new orders falling sharply, a serious loss of export items, capital chain is tight. This phenomenon mainly as follows:
(A) of the capital chain has become more tense the situation.
In recent years the main task of power generation equipment manufacturers have been very full, the rapid growth of export contracts. But into the second half, the situation became critical power companies, have a loss, new orders plunged, power generation equipment manufacturing company is worried about payment defaults resulting power companies, so they have to adjust scheduling in the delivery schedule; the international market, especially in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, the project is also at risk sign, so our companies are also taking preventive measures. These have caused a large backlog of business in the products, increase in accounts receivable, cash flow problems. Such as Shanghai Electric Power Company stock in late 2008 is expected to increase 21.7% than the end of 2007. The situation in 2009 is expected to be even more severe.
(B) exchange rate, a serious loss of overseas projects.